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Abstract

Exposure to different mutagens leaves distinct mutational patterns that can allow inference of pathogen replication niches. We therefore investigated whether SARS-CoV-2 mutational spectra might show lineage-specific differences, dependent on the dominant site(s) of replication and onwards transmission, and could therefore rapidly infer virulence of emergent variants of concern (VOCs). Through mutational spectrum analysis, we found a significant reduction in G>T mutations in the Omicron variant, which replicates in the upper respiratory tract (URT), compared to other lineages, which replicate in both the URT and lower respiratory tract (LRT). Mutational analysis of other viruses and bacteria indicates a robust, generalizable association of high G>T mutations with replication within the LRT. Monitoring G>T mutation rates over time, we found early separation of Omicron from Beta, Gamma and Delta, while mutational patterns in Alpha varied consistent with changes in transmission source as social restrictions were lifted. Mutational spectra may be a powerful tool to infer niches of established and emergent pathogens.

Funding
This study was supported by the:
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Foundation (Award BAA 200-2021-11554)
    • Principle Award Recipient: RussellCorbett-Detig
  • G2P-UK National Virology Consortium funded by the MRC (Award MR/W005611/1)
    • Principle Award Recipient: ThomasP Peacock
  • UK CF Trust (Award Innovation Hub Award 001; Strategic Research Centre SRC010)
    • Principle Award Recipient: R.Andres Floto
  • Fondation Botnar (Award Programme grant 6063)
    • Principle Award Recipient: R.Andres Floto
  • Wellcome Trust (Award 107032/Z/15/Z)
    • Principle Award Recipient: R.Andres Floto
  • This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. This article was made open access via a Publish and Read agreement between the Microbiology Society and the corresponding author’s institution.
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2023-05-15
2024-05-21
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