Summary: It is the first occasion in this series of lectures in which the major part of the problem under discussion concerns the work of the lecturer himself. This is rather like entering the confessional in public, and you will forgive me, I know, for having provided myself with a few lantern slides in order to darken the room from time to time. A diffieulty that became very real to me in preparing this lecture was to recall my actual processes of thought at the time of this work 21 years ago. So much has happened since which has a direct bearing on it that it is extremely difficult to cast out things which have since become, so to speak, part of my phenotypic constitution. However, I will try to be strictly honest and if things in fact did not occur in the way in which, in the light of the present knowledge, they ought to have occurred, this is not my fault. I am instructed to discuss the interplay of theory, experiment, models and chance in my work; this means that I really have to be frank!


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